The fourth quarter was exceptionally strong for stocks, so it was important to believe in the strength of the American consumer and the power of the Fed when stocks and bonds were hitting lows last quarter (see our last quarterly commentary here). Inflation continued to decline and the probability of the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut increased for the new year. The Fed has paused since its last rate hike in July of 2023. The first cut may be as early as Q1, most likely in Q2, but could be pushed out to the end of the year, or beyond, if the economy remains robust enough to keep adding jobs. We would like to see a long pause from the Fed based on the strength of the economy. Bond yields have already responded, moving down substantially across longer maturities, in anticipation of the first interest rate cut.
The last stock market record high was January 5th, 2022, and we are currently very close to the same level for the S&P 500. The momentum from 2023 is strong and will likely continue if the strength of the U.S. job market continues and U.S. consumer spending drives GDP and corporate earnings growth higher. The bond market is back in balance between sellers and buyers as a dovish change in language by the Fed caused a sharp reversal in longer term U.S. Treasury yields from short covering. The current sentiment of bond investors is an overwhelming agreement that the next move by the Fed will be a rate cut.
We are cautious due to the high valuation of U.S. stocks but remain optimistic on the U.S. job market and improved productivity from new technologies. We want to remind you we are watching all the developments closely, especially small-cap stocks, which performed very well during the last two months of last year. We look forward to our planning discussions for the new year and meeting with you, whether in person or virtually.
For those who would like a deeper dive into the details, please continue reading…
